RELYING ON SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TO PROMOTE THE MODERIZATION OF METEOROLOGY

Mr.Zou Jingmeng

Respected Mr.Chairman, Members of the Council,

China's Agenda 21 is a very important which was formulated in accordance with Chinese conditions. It will provide a strategic guide to the coordination of social, economic, environmental and resource development in China.

Atmosphere is an important vital component of the human environment. Atmosphere provides us with valuable climatic resources which are important to social and economic development. At the same time, it also causes meteorological disasters which can seriously restrain this development. In chapters such as Protection of the Atmosphere', Disaster Mitigation', and "Conservation and Sustainable Use of Natural Resources", China's Agenda 21 calls for the establishment of a severe weather and climate monitoring system, a climate change monitoring, research, and predication system, and the improvement of weather and climate prediction and service systems. It also calls for the strengthening of studies on the rules of meteorological disaster occurrences and the impact of climate change on natural resources such as water, forest, and grassland.

The establishment of the National Climate Centre is among three projects which were undertaken or participated in by the China Meteorological Administration. Other projects Programmes of China's Agenda21 require meteorological services of various types are China's Natural Disaster Assessment and the Comprehensive Disaster Mitigation Response System, Solar Energy Utilization and Power Generation, Development and Demonstration of Large Windmill Generators, and Demonstration of Energy Conservation in Construction. The China Meteorological Service will actively participate in and contribute to the implementation of China's Agenda21 by providing various meteorological services. I will today present an overview of the activities and efforts made to promote sustainable, healthy and rapid social and economic development in China by the China Meteorological Administration through the modernization of meteorology, meteorological disaster mitigation, rational cultivation and utilization of climate resources.

Ⅰ.Strive to Enhance Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Prediction Capability and Make a Contribution to Social and Economic Development Through the Mitigation and Prevention of Meteorological Disaster

China is a large country. Its climate resources are rich and versatile. However, meteorological disasters are frequent. With the development of the national economy, direct economic losses caused by natural disasters are also increasing From 1990 to 1994,economic losses caused by meteorological disasters represented 60 to 1 80 billion yuan per annum. This is equal to approximately 3-6% of China's GNP. Weather and climate have the largest impact on agriculture. In addition, these disasters restrict the potential for stable grain production and increase in grain productivity. For stable grain production and increase in grain productivity. For example, China's grain production was 400 million tons in 1984.It was 450 million tons in 1993.The production increase was just 50 million tons in ten year. The ma in reason is that a very severe drought or flood occurred every two to three years during this period.

As the national economy and social development increase, the need for meteorological services for disaster mitigation will be more urgent and the economic benefits of meteorological services for disaster mitigation will be more marked. The available assessment on the benefits of national meteorological services showed the cost-benefit ratio to be 1:15-20 in the 1980's.In the early 1990's,it reached 1 :40.this ratio was even higher in developed regions. This is due to the fact that the China Meteorological Administration has adhered to the policy of relying on science and technological progress to promote the modernization of meteorology as well as the Administration's enhancement of meteorological disaster monitoring and prediction capabilities.

To date, the Chinese Meteorological Service has established a rationally distributed, highly automatic, and comprehensive meteorological sounding system. The successful launch of two FY-1 polar-orbiting experimental meteorological satellites in 1988 and 1990 respectively brought atmospheric sounding in China into a new phase. The Chinese Meteorological Centre as the hub, the system links six regional meteorological cetres and 30 provincial level weather bureaus. Most prefectural weather bureaus and some county weather stations are equipped with computed terminals, Data transmission and processing capabilities have been greatly improved. The China weather prediction system with the China-made Galaxy-Ⅱand imported Cray-92 supercomputers. NWP products of five to seven days are now issued nationwide.

The forecast range has been considerably extended, which provides more time for the mitigation of meteorological disasters. China is now one of the few countries in the world that can make medium-range numerical weather predictions. Through it s reliance on science and technological progress for modernization, the Chinese Meteorological Service is now in the lead among developing countries and is narrowing the gap with developed countries. Our capability in providing meteorological services, particularly in flood and drought combat, have been greatly enhanced.

One example of the benefits of modernization is the matter of the weather anomalies that occur in many regions. Serious flooding and water-logging occurs in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou in the south and Jilin and Liaoning in the northeast. Some provinces in the southwest met with serious droughts which had not been a factor for the past 40 to 60 years. Meteorological services at various governmental levels made full use of the achievements of modernization. Accurate predictions of climate trends were made for spring and summer. In summer, weather was closely monitored for spring and the provision of accurate forecasts of disastrous and critical weather. Active measures were taken to provide timely and targeted services which served as the scientific basis for decision-making by the Party and governmental departments at various levels of local disaster combat and mitigation. These services were highly regarded by the government at various levels as well as by the general population.

In order to enhance our capability to monitor, predict, and mitigate meteorological disasters, and to play a more important role in the safeguarding of sustainable social and economic development, the China Meteorological Administration has begun to shift our emphasis to monthly, seasonal, and annual climate prediction as part of our promotion of modernization. These are of strategic importance to nation al economic development. We have also set up bases for the monitoring and warning of medium and small-scale weather disturbances, which often cause great and sudden damage to national economic development. The range of meteorological disaster prediction has been extended as far of meteorological disaster prediction has been extended as far as possible to the ends of long-range and current forecasting.

Ⅱ.Creatly Strengthen Climate Variation and Climate Change Monitoring and Prediction in Order to Provide a Scientific Basis for Sustainable Social and Economic Development

Climate and climate change can have an extensive, complicated and far-reaching impact on human activity and social development, and therefore attract the attention of the international community, In order to enhance China's capability to monitor climate change and to promote sustainable social and economic development, the China Meteorological Service has made a series of efforts to strengthen its monitoring and prediction capabilities.

A. China is now Actively Involved in Climate Prediction Research, Operations, and Service.

These activities will enhance the adaptation to the sustainable, rapid, and healthy development of the Chinese economy, especially the development of high production, high quality, and highly efficient agriculture, and to adapt to the need of international activities in the field of global climate change.

After a scientific assessment which was attended by 19 well-known foreign experts and climatologists, including the Secretary-General of WMO and the Executive Director of UNEP and twelve Chinese meteorologists, and with the direct personal support of the State Councillor Professor Song Jian, we proposed to establish the National Climate Centre. With the approval of the State Council, the preparations of its establishment was begun in February of last year, In January this year, the National Climate Centre was officially established and began its trial operation.

At present, it provides users with several publications, including Monthly Climate Monitoring Bulletin, Monthly Climate Prediction, Monthly Climate Impact Assessment, and Climate Bulletin on Drought and Waterlogging in China.

Particularly noteworthy is the Centre successful predictions in advance of monthly and summer season precipitation trends, Effective services were provided to the government in flood and drought combat, The National Climate Centre has also conducted academic exchanges in climate and climate change with British and American climatologists.

The National Climate Centre will work on the development of a climate model system for operational use, the establishment of an operational short range climate prediction system integrated with both dynamic and statistical methodology, and relevant studies of climate change and its possible impacts, It will seek more extensive academic exchanges and international cooperation. This will no doubt improve the monitoring and predicting capabilities of variations and change as well as provide better service to China's agriculture and sustainable social and economic development, All these efforts will enable the National Climate Centre to play an effective role in addressing climate change and its associated impacts and create the necessary foundation for related UNCED follow-up activities.

B. To Improve the Monitoring Capability of Climate and Climate Change. Chinese Meteorological Authorities will Promote the Development of an Automatic Atmospheric Monitoring System.

The Waligunashan Atmospheric Pollution Observatory located in Qinghai Province is the first of its kind in the world, The Observatory has started its background observation of atmospheric quality and has already accumulated some valuable data.

The Chinese meteorological authorities have also paid great attention to the activities of the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS),an integrated system for monitoring atmosphere ,hydrosphere, and land ecosphere, sponsored by WMO(World Meteorological Organization),UNEP(United Nations Environment Program),UNESCO, and the I CSU(International Council for Scientific Unions).It has not only sent its experts to participate in the activities organized by the Joint Scientific and Technological Commission of the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS),but will also establish the China Commission for the leaders of the State Council. This will be an interagency organization coordinating the development of China's climate related observational systems in accordance with the GCOS.

C. Climate Variation and Change are Complicated Scientific Issues.

To further improve climate change monitoring and prediction capabilities, and to provide better service for sustainable social and economic development, the Chinese meteorological communities have long paid great attention to research on the causes of climate variations and change.

Recent years have seen a series of ongoing studies such as Prediction, Impacts, and Response Strategies of Global Climate Change, Studies of Climate Dynamics and Climate Prediction Theory, Prediction of Severe Climate Events and their Impact on Agricultural Performance and Distribution of Water Resources, Theory of Short Range Climate Prediction and Associated Methodology, and Global Change and Change of China's Environment for Survival and its Future Perspectives. To further narrow down scientific uncertainties on climate variations and changes, we have organized experts to define a preliminary list for further in-depth research as follows:

1.Reconstruct the paleo-climate by using potent, tree rings, and historical literature in order to study past climate changes.

2.Develop a methodology for the calculation of present and future greenhouse gas emissions as well as for a prediction of scenarios tailored to China's situation.

3.Study the physical and chemical processes of clouds, oceans, carbon cycle, and aerosol and develop China's own sea-land-ice coupled model.

4.Establish and develop models for the assessment of the impact of climate change on Chinese society, economy, and environment, and propose suggestions and response strategies for the alleviation of and adaptation to climate changes.

China will organize major experiments and research activities relating to disaster prevention and preparedness. It has thus far sponsored the second Tibetan Plateau Meteorological Experiment, the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment, and the Energy and Hydrocycle Experiment of the Huaihe River Valley. All these experiments have become an important component of the global energy and hydrocycle experiment s of the World Climate Research Program. These scientific experiments facilitate further understanding of China's climate process and improve the capability of climate change monitoring prediction, and services.

D. China has always Taken a Positive Attitude toward International Activities in the Field of Climate Change. In the course of the preparation of the second assessment report of IPCC, China not only sent ten scientists to be leading authors of the report, but also organized many scientists and governmental agencies to review the draft document, making clear contributions to the smooth preparation of the report.

China participated effectively in the First Session of the Conference of Parties held in Berlin on March 28 and the Chinese delegation contributed its constructive efforts to the success of the conference.

Ⅲ.Implementing China's Agenda 21 and Promoting China's Meteorological Modernization to a higher Stage with the Help of Scientific and Technological Advances

As pointed out is China's Agenda 21,without the support of scientific and technological advance, it will be impossible to realize the objective of sustainable development. Only the continuous advance of meteorological science can enable the provision of reliable evidence and the basis for a decision-making process of sustainable social and economic development. In accordance with the principle that the development of meteorological operations should match national economic and social development, and that the meteorological service may initiate further advance when appropriate, the following five points have been preliminarily defined for the development of Chinese meteorological services in the next century.

A. Establish an integrated meteorological observational system. This system would be composed of: a uniformly distributed Doppler radar network, GPS sounding system and wind profiler network, new generation ground and specialized meteorological sounding equipment, a meso-scale weather monitoring network comprised of land based and air based sounding systems, special atmospheric observation network, and an airplane observation and satellite monitoring network. Achieve the full operation of satellite monitoring by developing both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites.

B. Establish an integrated national meteorological information network of high re liability and advanced technology so as to realize automatic monitoring and the sharing of meteorological data; and develop a high performance computer system in order to achieve integrated transmission and application of data, sound, graphics, and images.

C. Establish a new generation technological procedure of meteorological service; establish and develop medium range numerical weather prediction as well as monthly and seasonal short range climate prediction on high performance computers. The lead time of medium range numerical weather prediction would be advanced to ten days for middle and high altitudes and five days for low altitudes. Vigorously develop interpretation and application methods for numerical weather prediction products and other advanced prediction and forecasting technique; strengthen the application of meteorological satellites and weather radars in meteorological and non-meteorological fields; and establish local forecast analysis system and imp rove the prediction capability of severe weathers and climate change.

D. Carry out research activities important to the development of meteorological service, especially in the following fields: the formation mechanism of severe meteorological events and their monitoring and prediction, theory and prediction of climate change, China's short range climate prediction system, meso-scale weather system and its prediction, parallel computation of numerical weather prediction and associated programming, rational development and exploitation, and protection of climate resources and weather modification.

E. Strengthen international Cooperation and actively participate in various research activities under the WCP, ICBP, and GCOS.

Mr.Chairman and Members of the Council.

Under the guidance of China's Agenda21, the modernization of Chinese meteorological services encompasses the need for promoting China's natural disasters prevent ion and preparedness, the protection and rational utilization of climate resources, and the assurance of sustainable economic and social development .The modernization of China's meteorological service is undertaking that will go beyond this century .We agree to continue extensive international cooperation and to learn from other advanced countries .This will not only benefit China but will also allow international communities to enjoy the results of their own development.

Thank you.